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Princeton, New Jersey
--A decade later, the events of 1989 have lost
none of their capacity to astonish. For those of us who lived through these
events and who had a certain role in shaping them, the enormity of what
transpired that fateful year becomes even more amazing with the passage of
time. The sober realities of the post-Cold War world should not diminish the
heroic achievements of that year.
Memory takes me back to a conversation with Bronislaw Geremek -- now Polish
foreign minister but then a key adviser to Solidarity leader Lech Walesa --
in early May 1989. Solidarity had just concluded the round table agreement
with the Polish government, promising free elections in the summer. I was in
Warsaw to plan President George Bush's scheduled visits to Poland and
Hungary in July and to see how the United States could lend support to a
peaceful democratic breakthrough in both countries.
Within the U.S. administration, our judgment was that if the Polish round
table talks were fully and faithfully implemented, this was the beginning of
the end of communist rule in Poland. If communism was finished in Poland, it
was finished everywhere in Eastern Europe--including East Germany, which
meant the question of German unification would leap onto the international
agenda. Of course, those were very large "ifs"--our appreciation of the
potential for such sweeping changes was by no means a prediction that they
might actually occur, much less within a year.
It was our recognition of just how much was at stake that led the Bush
administration to throw U.S. weight fully behind peaceful democratic change
in Central and Eastern Europe, forging a Western consensus behind this
agenda and holding East-West relations hostage to Soviet acceptance of
self-determination in this region. It was, in my estimation, the most
important single thing the United States did in helping bring about the end
of the Cold War. Of course, the United States did not cause those
revolutionary developments; they grew out of very deep historic roots. But
we did help create an international environment conducive to their success.
By the same token, our instinctive support for German unification--at a time
when most of Europe and, of course, the Soviet Union were opposed--was the
product of early recognition of the prospect of the end of the Cold War and
development of a strategy for dealing with it. This thinking was embedded in
U.S. policy during President Bush's visit to Germany in May 1989, long
before the fall of the Berlin Wall. We did not cause German unification any
more than we caused the revolutions of 1989. Unification was coming whether
we willed it or not. But if we had joined the British, French, and Russians
in opposing unification, or if we had merely remained passive, the outcome
for Germany and for Europe might have been far different.
Lady Luck played a role as well, for we were dealing at the end of the Cold
War with a Soviet leadership still strong enough to override hard-line
opponents domestically but too weak to offer meaningful resistance to the
precipitous loss of empire. And, of course, Soviet President Mikhail
Gorbachev deserves credit for championing change in the communist world and
refusing to resort to forcible suppression even as those changes went far
beyond anything he had considered at the outset.
Still, Americans can take pride in the fact that at a critical moment, their
government was on the right side of history and successfully pursued
policies that were consistent with our principles and our interests. The
objectives we had set for ourselves in early 1989--self-determination in
Eastern Europe, reduction of Soviet forces to less threatening levels,
Soviet cooperation in solving regional disputes, and the liberalization of
the USSR itself--were met and exceeded far more rapidly than we had
imagined.
Most of us dealing with these issues in Europe or the United States had our
epiphanies, our moments of realization that the end of Europe's division
might actually be at hand--not just as an aspiration for the 1990s but as an
imminent reality. For many, it came with the opening of the Berlin Wall on 9
November; others may have had premonitions already in early 1989 (although
surely not as many as later claimed such prescience). Mine came with the
election of Tadeusz Mazowiecki as Polish prime minister in late August. The
United States had been working hard to persuade the Soviet Union that
self-determination in Central and Eastern Europe could be achieved in a
manner consistent with legitimate Soviet security interests; in Poland, the
early steps taken by the Mazowiecki government were proof of that
contention. By the year's end, the political landscape of Central and
Eastern Europe would be transformed beyond recognition.
The scope and speed of these changes--a generation's worth of history
compressed into a few months--caused us to lose our strategic bearings. The
skill with which we managed the challenges of 1989 gave way to confusion
thereafter, and the failures of U.S. and other Western policies toward a
disintegrating Yugoslavia seemed to herald not a new world order but
old-world disorder. Even more worrying in the broader strategic sense was
the failure of the United States and its Western European partners to
fashion a new transatlantic balance of roles and responsibilities that would
carry us securely into the new century. There were failures on all sides: on
ours, we continued to assert a dominant leadership role even as our actions
(or inactions) called into question U.S. consistency and steadfastness.
For Americans, the loss of focus at the end of the Cold War was accentuated
by the manner in which it ended--not with military victory, demobilization,
and celebration, but with the unexpected capitulation of the other side
without a shot being fired. We had mobilized as if for war and were
mercifully spared the conflict that many saw as inevitable. The grand
struggle had ended not with a bang but a whimper.
Americans of an earlier generation knew when V-E Day and V-J Day were; there
were dates on the calendar marking victory in Europe and victory over Japan
in 1945. But the Cold War ended on no certain date; it lacked finality. The
exhilaration Americans felt at the fall of the Berlin Wall was real but
somehow distant and abstract; it was detached from our own intense role in
the city's history since 1945. The end of the Cold War thus evoked among the
American public little sense of purpose fulfilled--and even less of
responsibility for the tasks of post-war construction.
Yet gradually, America is finding its way in the new era. Sustained (if
belated) American commitment to peacekeeping efforts in the former
Yugoslavia is an encouraging sign, as is the United States-led enlargement
of NATO to embrace three new Central European members. Europeans east and
west would be wise not to undervalue this renewed commitment, just as
Americans ought to show more understanding and support for the ambitious
goals the European Union has set for itself. Inasmuch as the 10th
anniversary of the revolutions of 1989 is also the 50th anniversary of NATO
and of the Council of Europe, it is an auspicious year to redeem the
long-deferred promise of a more united Europe and a new transatlantic
partnership.
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